As a resident of Hawaii, October 15th has been circled on our calendars since we got out of quarantine ourselves: the day when visitors can begin coming to Hawaii again without a quarantine. After months of delay, pre-travel testing program, which allows visitors to bypass quarantine with a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours of travel, is finally live. Originally slated for August 1st, then September 1st, then October 1st, the state has finally figured out how to make it work (on paper).
Maui has been an odd place over the 2.5 months that we’ve been here, with almost no rental cars on the road and few crowds anywhere. Many businesses have been closed since the spring because without tourists, there’s no market for say snorkel equipment rentals or Luau’s.
COVID-19 in Hawaii
Hawaii as a state has not been hit nearly as hard as other places, however due to its geographic isolation, is especially prone to things getting out of control. There’s no option to drive to the state or county next door if hospitals fill up, as there’s a limited supply of ICU beds (very limited on non-Oahu islands). Hawaii as a whole as seen about 13,000 cases, with 12,000 on Oahu (where 90% of the population lives). Maui County has fared well when compared to places of similar populations, with 409 cases reported and 18 deaths.
The 14-day quarantine was implemented in March and since then, Hawaii has seen its tourism fall by more than 90%. In September, a month that saw 280,000 visitors in 2019, only saw 2,400.
How Maui is preparing for visitors
While extended unemployment benefits were being offered to those affected by the massive decrease demand for services, I felt like most locals were okay with being told to stay home. For a period of time, the people that have called Hawaii home were able to “reclaim” some space, including the beaches, normally packed with people.
I can only speak for Leigh and me, but we’re kind of ready for a some action. From March to July 31st, when we moved, San Francisco was a ghost town and Maui has really not been much different. The difference is that since we don’t have many cases of the virus and most of what we do here is outside, life pretty much functions normally here other than wearing a masks in restaurants and stores.
I don’t have hard data, but I also get the impression most locals (people who’ve been here longer than us) are ready for visitors again so that they can get back to some semblance of normalcy. On the flip side, I’m sure there are high-risk individuals that aren’t so thrilled.
What the future holds
Personally, I’m not expecting a flood of tourists back to Maui, although I was very surprised to see that Maui is expecting 700 visitors today (!). Compared to historic numbers of 30,000 visitors a day on Maui, this is still a drop in the bucket.
My rationale for limited numbers is threefold:
- Flights are capacity constrained right now. There are less than 10 flights direct to Maui from the mainland right now. Pre-COVID, there were 10 flights a day just from SFO.
- Hotel capacity is limited. There are some hotels that have stayed open and a handful of that have reopened, however many remained closed.
- Last and certainly not least, people are still not ready to fly. The continued abysmal numbers that the airlines are reporting is evidence that people still don’t feel safe being in a confined space for a long period of time. Hawaii, unlike other vacation destinations, is a 5.5 hour flight for the closest airport in the US (SFO).
With those points, I have said that there will likely be a sizeable number of visitors over Thanksgiving and Christmas. My assumption is that most of those travelers booked their trips far in advance and probably never canceled them.
One other thing to consider is that the Hawaiian government has shown to be incredibly conservative with the virus, so it would not surprise me one bit that once cases start to increase in a few weeks (and they will, there’s no way around it), they may implement further restrictions or reinstate the quarantine. Further, cases are rising dramatically on the mainland as we head into colder weather, which could cause people or local governments to hit the pause button on travel. These are also the reasons we’re going to visit our families next week rather than wait to the holidays (the other being that we can do things outdoors since it’s still warm in Alabama/Georgia). More on that later.
Final thoughts
I’m excited yet anxious for some visitors to return. I think it will be good for Maui small businesses which in turn, will give those of us who live here more options of places to dine outdoors, etc… There is another part of me that’s nervous just because we have been living in a bubble here. Even though we wear masks when in close quarters, we’ll no longer be able to assume everyone we come in contact with is COVID-free.
I hope Hawaii residents (and now visitors) continue to be diligent about mask wearing. I hope that the local and state government takes a methodical and data-driven approach to dealing with the influx of visitors and cases, rather than a reactionary one.
Regardless, I will miss the empty secluded beaches, easy to get tee times, and non-existent dinner reservations.
